A study by Osaka Metropolitan University suggests that Japan’s national “compact city” policies are inadvertently increasing the burden on elderly care services in smaller municipalities, raising urgent questions for the integration of smart transit and digital healthcare in Japan’s rapidly ageing regions.

The research, published in Sustainable Cities and Society, analysed the short-term effects of the Location Optimization Plan (LOP), a strategy adopted by Japanese municipalities since 2016 to consolidate urban facilities and residents around transit hubs. Associate Professor Haruka Kato examined data from 1,595 small and medium-sized cities between 2008 and 2022 to estimate the policy’s impact on population trends and Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) requirements.

Japanese cities make extensive use of digital twins and data-centric approaches to support LOP. Launched in 2020 by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Project PLATEAU funds the creation of open-source, 3D digital twins for cities across Japan. Japan uses these data-centric frameworks to guide its “smart shrinkage” and compact city goals.

The findings indicate that the adoption of LOP was associated with a more negative population trend in smaller cities. In municipalities with populations under 50,000, plans that included the consolidation of government and educational facilities were linked to higher counts of care-support certifications. Medium-sized cities did not show statistically significant changes in care service outcomes.

The study suggests that the social costs of transitioning to compact urban models are context-dependent. Researchers noted that while these strategies aim to sustain services over the long term, the immediate consolidation of community hubs in small towns can create accessibility issues that increase the need for formal care.

“In the smallest cities, consolidating key community facilities was linked to rising burdens in care services,” said Dr Kato. “Rather than applying a one-size-fits-all prescription, these cities may need to adopt smart-decline principles that put residents’ immediate well-being first.”