Smart home shipments are forecast to decline slightly in 2022 with modest growth expected in 2023, according to market watcher IDC.

Worsening macroeconomic conditions have led to a reduction in the outlook for global smart home device shipments. Worldwide shipments of smart home devices are now expected to decline 2.6% in 2022 to 874 million units with smart speakers and video entertainment devices such as TVs and streaming devices facing the brunt of the decline.

“Shipments of smart home devices have been impacted significantly by ongoing supply chain disruptions,” said Adam Wright, senior research manager at IDC. “Moreover, we’re witnessing downward pressure on demand in 2022 as inflation continues to squeeze consumers’ wallets. Looking ahead, we expect volatility will continue to inhibit the market’s growth in 2023 and beyond.”

Though the global market is forecast to return to growth in 2023, it will remain relatively low at 4.6% with most of the growth coming from emerging markets as well as China.

“Though smart speakers arguably helped launch the smart home category, the shine of these products has largely worn off for consumers in developed markets such as the USA and China with shipments expected to decline in the long run,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC. “Smart speakers will now rely on emerging markets and places like Europe where language and lack of services have been a barrier to adoption in the past.”

Among the other form factors, home monitoring and security products such as cameras, doorbells or door locks, as well as smart lighting and video entertainment products, will account for the largest share and experience the highest growth rates within the smart home market.