Reports from market watchers Berg Insight and Juniper Research see mixed fortunes for the cellular IoT market.

Berg says annual shipments of cellular IoT modules amounted to 423 million units in 2023, down three per cent from the previous year. Annual sales declined nine per cent to $5.4bn in the year. The decline was largely due to high inventory levels among customers, caused by the change in purchasing behaviour during the shortages of components.

However, it predicts shipments of cellular IoT modules are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 13 per cent to reach 786 million units by 2028.

A study by Juniper Research predicts total operator revenue from cellular IoT will increase from $12.4bn in 2024 to $23bn in 2028. The research found that despite this $10bn growth, quantum attacks on cellular IoT represented a significant security vulnerability for enterprises. To resolve this, cellular IoT vendors must develop quantum-resistant cryptography services to futureproof their protection.

The Juniper research analysed the offerings across 18 key cellular IoT operators and vendors, as well as their innovation and future prospects. It ranked the top three vendors as Microsoft, Huawei and Vodafone Business.

The Berg report focused purely on cellular IoT module vendors, and it found the top five to be Quectel, Fibocom, Telit Cinterion, Semtech and U-Blox, who between then hold a 72 per cent share of the market in terms of revenues.

The rapid growth of LTE Cat-1bis module shipments is the strongest trend in the market. After Unisoc’s launch of the first LTE Cat-1bis chipset in 2019, LTE Cat-1bis modules account for more than 100 million units of the annual volume and are expected to remain the largest category throughout the forecasted period. LTE Cat-1bis chipsets are now available from close to ten suppliers, most of which are based in China. LTE Cat-1bis module prices have dropped below $5 per unit in large volumes on the Chinese market, where the modules are widely used across product categories such as PoS terminals, asset trackers, vehicle telematics devices and smart meters.

LTE Cat-1bis is also becoming a popular option across other markets, especially in regions where 4G LTE networks are expected to remain in operation for the foreseeable future. LTE-M modules however still beat LTE Cat-1bis modules on pricing and are the more popular option for IoT devices with stricter requirements on power consumption and long lifecycle. As LTE-M is 5G-ready, it is suitable for IoT devices that will stay in the field for more than ten years, which may prove critical as mobile operators in advanced markets will start to sunset their 4G LTE networks near the end of the decade.

In the high-speed segments, 5G is starting to replace high-speed 4G LTE variants across product categories such as connected cars, FWA CPEs and IoT routers. 5G redcap modules are starting to become generally available and will function as a replacement for LTE Cat-4 and LTE Cat-6 modules. Uptake of the technology is expected to accelerate in 2026 to 2027 when pricing and 5G SA network coverage have improved. Berg Insight has identified ten cellular chipset suppliers that have launched or plan to launch 5G redcap chipsets, which will over time contribute to a healthy device ecosystem.

More on the Berg report can be found at media.berginsight.com/2024/06/10191242/bi-deviceecosystems8-ps.pdf. And details of Juniper’s report are at www.juniperresearch.com/research/telecoms-connectivity/operator-strategies/cellular-iot-strategies-research-report.